A one-off US strike on Iran, or the start of a lengthy war?

The Guardian writes: “Trump appeared to view the bombing run as comparable to his drone strike to assassinate Gen Qassem Suleimani of Iran, one of his proudest accomplishments from his first term and one he mentioned repeatedly at campaign rallies, despite his denouncements of US military action in the Middle East.”

Can it be that President Trump considers this heavy bombing attack as a one-off hit, hoping for no relevant consequences as after he ordered the killing of the Irani General Suleimani? It is hard to believe that US strategists did not consider all hypothetical consequences and have plans for any possible outcome.

The Guardian continues: “Whether that hope (of a on-off strike) plays out could depend on large part on how Iran interprets the strikes and its ability to retaliate. If Iranian leaders perceived them to be limited, it could lead to a more measured response. But if seen as too disproportionate, and with little to lose, Iran could open frontal attacks on numerous US bases in the region.”

Indeed, it is now fully up to Iran to assess its situation and options. Iran knows, at least since yesterday, that US declarations to seek peace through negotiations are not credible enough to make a decision.  It would be interesting to know how much Iran believed in the WH statement about the two weeks period of no attack, a statement issued last Thursday which, at least, immediately lifted hopes at the stock exchanges. Such hopes may now be destroyed.

Iran has still many options, as Fox News concludes and as also the Mullah Regime may already now conclude, eg that it has nothing to lose and eventually something still to gain with a full steam attack on US and Israel. The US cannot accept another war in the ME and will not deploy own troops into Iran. Of course, the US has the full bombing power to bring lots of deaths and destruction into Iran and many innocent Iranian civilians could die while the US army may only be slightly damaged . This outcome would not be optimal for the US. It is then not a regime change and it does not abolish the Mullah Regime. But there may result a radicalization in Iran and the Muslim World which may lead to global risks and instability. Also other short term negative consequences are expected, in particular, for the energy industry. Since the Israeli attacks on Iran started, the oil price jumped considerably and is expected to increase further. If Iran decides to close the Straits of Hormuz, or just threatens shipping there, the oil price may increase to several hundred dollars a barrel. Depending on how long this blockage may persist, the impact on the World economy may be terrible.

It is therefore, expected that Iran’s retaliation will be measured and depend on any counter-reaction from the US. Iran understood that Israel is now vulnerable to its missiles, and also understands that it can still issue some threats against the US and Western economies.

And finally, Iran may experience an unknown solidarity from the international community, from the Muslim World, from BRICS countries and eventually from those Western activists who raised their voices for Palestine in anti-semite rants.