CNN: Iran faces hard choices as it calibrates next move against US and Israel

CNN is saying that Iran is likely to respond. In theroy, this is an easy statement, but Iran has obviously only limited choices.

Iran could declare simply that it is will to sit at a negotiation table, even though it has stated a day before the US attack that any negotiations are subject to a stop of hostilities. And it is difficult to evaluate what may be negotiated as Donald Trump demands surrender and Israel a regime change.

This makes the Iranian Mullah Regime nothing to lose and a real response can be expected: as it is obviously also CNN’s prediction.

Iran, while continuing to send missiles to Israel, which seems vulnerable, can also hit US army bases in the ME. Of course, this will be strongly answered by the US and it is not sure if such a retaliation against the US would not call for a NATO Art. 5 intervention. Iran may face the combined NATO fire power.

Iran could, as already threatened, close the Straits of Hormuz, where 30% of the World’s oil pass through.  The economic consequences can be devastating if such blockage will last for longer. CNN writes: “Geographic leverage over global shipping gives Iran the “capacity to cause a shock in oil markets, drive up oil prices, drive inflation, collapse Trump’s economic agenda,”

Also other ME leaders are warning about the negative consequences of the US strike for the region, in particular, if long term hostilities are expected. Iran may have to consider the reactions of its neighbors, in particular, regarding any disruption to their oil exports through the Straits of Hormuz.