CNN: US strike on Iran could open a ‘Pandora’s box’ in the Middle East

CNN gives a negative outlook on the consequences of a US strike on Iran.

Donald Trump has ordered large sea contingent and an aircraft carrier to the area. The US contingent is accompanied by UK forces. It seems they are ready to forcefully hit Iran in one or two days.

Donald Trump demands the unconditional surrender of Iran. It is not clear what this means and what conditions must be fulfilled to unconditionally surrender.

Israel’s intention is a regime change in Iran, to get rid off the Mullah Regime. It is about the time and most Iranians would agree to abolish the extremist Muslim police state. Will it work, or will Iran become another Afghanistan, Syria, where extremist Muslim factions took over control once the US left the country after a terrible and expensive invasion. A regime change in Iran is completely unpredictable: Iran has now standing opposition, not a civil war fraction like in Syria, Irak or Libya … where it was easy to arm the opposition against the regime. Iran is homogenous, without a serious opposition – comparable to today’s Russia.

Israel alone may not achieve the regime change and cannot forsee what happens then. CNN also raises doubts that the country can be fundamentally changed even after US bombing attacks.

CNN considers that Iran is a vast country with areas sometimes difficult to reach and where aerial bombings, specially in mountain areas, will not be so successful. CNN considers an outcome as it was arranged with the Yemeni Houthis recently: after months of bombings, the US made a deal with the Houthi regime, as seemingly the US compromised on the target. Israel may not agree to an agreement with the Mullah Regime, and is right not to do so.

CNN considers as well that the Iranian nuclear program may not be destroyed, just set back. Iran has a large number of nuclear facilities and people with know how. And making  a nuclear bomb is not a high tech challenge anymore. Therefore, after the bombs, Iran may take up again where they stopped and may try to rapidly be a real danger for Israel and the World.

As well, bombing nuclear facilities may result in nuclear fallout. If the nuclear power station Busher is attacked, nuclear fall out may reach other Gulf countries, not to say what the Iranian population will be exposed to.

As well, CNN remains that Iran, at its own decision, can close the Straits of Hormuz which will stop 30% of the World’s oil flowing, with unprecedented consequences on the World economy.

And the final variable in the equation is Russia. Russia has no obligation towards Iran, and Iran did not call for Russian help. Russia, in earlier years, has sent air defense systems to Iran- which seem to be quiet efficient. But Russia has not interest to send further arms to Iran – maybe in a secret agreement with Trump, Putin promised to stand down. Will he stand down, and how long? Or will he enter the game when all other combatants are out of power?

Remains the question if Trump’s actions aren’t just a Big Bluff. Iran is defiant, Israel not strong enough, the US/UK Armada vulnerable, so are the US camps on the Gulf (Bahrein etc.). And finally, the US starting a war with Iran will have an unpredictable outcome, and for sure collossal negative consequences on the US and World economy. Russia is rather immune to such consequences, as it is energy independent and more and more economically independent as well, after years of sanctions and blockade.

After the Corona, Ukraine shocks on Europe, the Iran shock will be really terrible for Europe, in particular. The World and Europe can hope that Trump is bluffing and that the Iranians play his game, and that Israel understands that alone it will not prevail. Therefore, there is a good chance for diplomacy.