CNN: With no clear exit strategy in Iran, Israel risks another war with no end

CNN raises alarm: after days of exchange of fire, drones and missiles, with Israel’s remarkable success in targeting Iranian important infrastructure and military, still there is no clear end in sight for the war with Iran.

CNN understands that Israel is seeking a regime change in Iran, hoping that enough liberal citizens can be mobilized to overturn the Mullah Regime.

With Iran, there was always the same problem since the Mullahs took over power. Many Iranians did not like to live under a Mullah Regime. But what could they do? The Mullahs represent the Iranian identity, their religion, their history and way of life. It is excluded for ordinary Iranians to uprise and forcefully get rid off the Mullahs. Iranians will never kill the Mullahs – they just live with the hope that the regime will become more secular and more liberal by itself, hoping that new generations of Mullahs and their appointed politicians will change their strict rule. A new generation may also change to role of the Revolutionary Guard which has power over daily life, economy and government. It will take time and, indeed, new generations. For the time being the young tendencies can be identified but are not a serious opposition to the Mullah Regime.

A forceful regime change from outside, in current Iran, may not be easy or rather condemned to fail – the vast majority of the Iranian people would not agree with such outside attack and interference – and destruction and death by Israel’s bombers and missiles may not convince Iranians otherwise.

And neither Israel nor the US have the power or intention to invade Iran, a huge country, with a huge army. For a regime change, in absence of a relevant opposition, an invasion would be needed after the bombing campaign.

If a regime change is really intended in Iran, it is not sufficient to to kill the old guard of top generals and mullahs which are almost retired or even almost too old to run their respective businesses. The old guard has assured a succession by younger loyal ideologists. As consequnce, the regime will most likely survive the bombs, even if many top leaders are killed by Israel. And these younger loyalists will then always have a convincing argument against a change which is imposed from outside powers: Afghanistan is a terrible example of how foreign force did not change the Taliban regime at the end.

CNN claims that Israeli sources say that the conflict will be solved by diplomacy. Yes, maybe – but why then attack Iran by surprise beforehand? Unless it is kept secret, neither Israel nor the US have explained, so far, a realistic exit strategy. CNN considers as highly probable that the conflict will be long lasting and that there is a risk for the US to be drawn in. Which is not an exit strategy either.