DailyMail: Selensky says ‘Putin will die soon’ and vows ‘it will come to an end’ 

Rumors about President Putin’s health are repeatedly published in different medias. Now again, V Selensky is raising this issue right in the middle of peace negotiations.

While every human being is at risk of dying earlier, it is wrong to speculate on this for the outcome of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. The conflict may not end if either Putin or Selensky will die prematurely. The question, in case of death, is who will replace the person, or which team will replace the person and his team?

In Russia, there is no open succession planning but it is more likely that Russia has prepared for the case. While it is known that various competitive groups exist in Russia, like in so many countries, the power structure at the top has not changed since long and seems very well established. Of course, the Russian President, because of his extensive powers, has a very decisive role and the country’s politics depend largely on this one man. But one man is nothing without a team – specially in Russia.

The inner circle of Putin’s team has sufficient candidates for replacing Putin in case of his death. The Western media have analysed a number of potential candidates and what would their appointment mean for the conflict in Ukraine. At lease, a general conclusion is that Putin was the “softest” of all those candidates and a replacement by one of his team members would lead to a harder, escalating war and a strategy of direct conflict with NATO. As such, the actual leader may be preferable to any surprise candidate who may not be as predictable and “trustworthy” as Putin.

Selensky should better not speculate or whish for on the early death of Putin as it is very uncertain and maybe even more dangerous what comes thereafter.