The German elections in 2 weeks seem unpredictable. There is a strong prediction for CDU to be the strongest party, the second will be AfD. SPD, Greens, Left, BSW and Liberals are to be reduced to small parties, partially not being able to secure seats in the Parliament. It is usual that the largest party proposes the Chancelor, with a coalition support. So, Friedrich Merz, the CDU candidate, may expect having the rightful claim to become the next Chancelor: and he will make real his life’s dream. But which will be the coalition? CDU, SPD and Greens? This will result in stagnation and no new politics. The Green’s influence will be a medium term obstacle leading to a coalition break like just now with the Liberals. CDU and AfD? It may need first the impossibilty to find an agreement between CDU and SPD/Greens and the chaos of an impossible coalition, with Germany ungovernable. A partnership between CDU and AfD will be highly disruptive to German politics and may cause disturbances with the EU, but a good understanding with the Trump Administration.
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