Prof. Jeffey Sachs, an outstanding scholar, a Eastern Europe and Russia specialist is analyzing in this video the current constellation with regard to Ukraine and the possibilities to find a peace solution. One does not need to be fully agreeable with Sachs, but the factual assessment is overwhelmingly correct.
Sachs identifies four main actors in Ukraine: the US, Europeans, Russia and Ukraine. The original conflict developed with the US’ (and some European countries’) intervention in Ukraine in 2014 and earlier. The US, till 2014, followed the plan of a regime change in Ukraine to install a Europe and NATO friendly government to arrange for Ukraine’s NATO accession (and EU membership) in order to bring NATO power to the borders of Russia. The plan would allow to better secure Mainland Europe and to destabilize Russia, eventually to gain control over the vast Eurasian continental zone.
The US under the Obama/Biden Administrations were the leading players in what became Project Ukraine (Donald Trump’s first presidential term did suspend those efforts to push Project Ukraine but the Biden Presidency accelerated it immediately thereafter). Already under the Obama/Biden Administrations, several European countries supported the US with regards to Project Ukraine: the UK, Germany, Poland e.a.
Since January 2025, the new, second Trump Administration has declared that Project Ukraine is not in the interests of the US and that there shall be no further spending and, in particular, a deescalation is needed to avoid the risk of a nuclear WWIII. Trump has said several times that he does not intend to continue aid for Ukraine and has already canceled some important support measure, while the military and intelligence aid as decided by the Biden Administration still is in place but is scheduled to terminate.
Trump knows that a continuation of the war in Ukraine is a great problem for his presidency. He promised to end it. His voters demand for its end. He also remembers UkraineGate which brought him an impeachment during his first term and therefore, Trump needs to be very careful with his decisions about Ukraine. Ukraine is again the most critical matter of his presidency.
Trump wants to end the US engagement, and he wants to stop the war. But he faces strong opposing powers in the US and in Europe and it seems that a settlement for Trump is not so easy – and cannot be arranged in short time, as he promised before his election.
Trump today understands that he has an internal political problem as the Democrats and a large part of the Republican class are demanding support to Ukraine and a defeat of Russia. This represents overall a majority of the Congress, as it can be estimated easily. It may not be the will of the US people, as well as not the will of the European voters. Congress, with votes of Dems and Rep hardliners may pass laws for the continued support of Ukraine and Trump may only raise his veto.
Trump already eyes the 2026 midterm elections which do not look so good for the Republicans. Trump may have a choice of losing House and Senate in 2026, either in a moderate way or in a big desaster. The Ukraine conflict may be decisive for the internal political decisions in the US. In anyway, losing the House may mean another impeachment procedure against Trump, for Ukraine or any other matter thar arises at the same time.
On the foreign policy situation, Trump is facing accusations and reminders from Europe and other NATO allies, in particular, from NATO itself. Trump will create disunion in NATO if he does not continue to support Ukraine. Powerful NATO countries urge him to do so. The political fallout of a conflict inside and with NATO cannot be even estimated by Trump and his Administration.
The Trump Administration has already acknowledged that the war in Ukraine is a proxy war, Trump said it’s Biden’s war and he already blamed Biden and V Selensky for the outbreak and the continuation of the war.
To find a rapid peace, Trump has already agreed to most of the conditions demanded by Russia. Trump knows that no peace is possible without a compromise with Russia. But Europe, the UK and Ukraine still insist on a peace which comes close to a Russian defeat. In essence, there are two views on how to end the war in Ukraine: Trump’s view to stop the war with a bad compromise, or the European/Ukrainian view with a continued war till the Endsieg.
Both views cannot find a compromise. Both views exclude each other’s.
Trump has, therefore, only one option open to stop the war rapidly: to withdraw the US immediately from Ukraine and to allow the collapse of the Ukrainian army and state – in hopefully a coordinated process with the Russian side.
The earlier Trump commands the US withdrawal from Ukraine, the better it is for next year’s midterm elections – as time will show the probably better results for his Administration and for the US.
To declare bankruptcy is also an approved economic strategy, and recovery and return to business is always possible while the past burdens are dismissed. Trump can declare Project Ukraine bankrupt and clearly demonstrate the failures of the previous management. It seems that he is already starting to do so.
Of course, Trump will face huge criticism, at home and abroad. There may be other internal powers who will develop a hostile attitude against Trump, his life may be again in danger. Europe will suffer tremendously under the Ukrainian collapse with waves of refugees, former soldiers. Europe will have to stem against these waves and finance the consequences of the Ukrainian collapse: Ukraine becoming a failed state will need EU support.
Till this moment and within the Ukrainian collapse, many terrible things can happen, terror and even nuclear attacks may occur as the current leadership of Ukraine has nothing to lose. Russia may face huge destruction and will further suffer for many more casualties. The hope remains that Europe will not get involved and will not confront Russia directly.
The hope also remains that Russia acts cautiously and carefully. Russia shall avoid any threat or action that may be considered as a threat to Europe. As well, Russia shall not get provoked, even by terrible acts, Russia shall not react fiercely. It is not the Ukrainian people which poses a danger for Russia, but it is the current Ukrainian elite and some national/extreme nationalist minorities that have developed the hate and aggression against Russia – which was so welcome for Project Ukraine. President Putin knows this and has shown already great restraint in all his actions and reactions, so far.
As it is a common understanding that Russia cannot be defeated (the German Foreign Minister Wadephul just said it), the best outcome for Trump is Ukraine’s fast collapse. It will end the war immediately, it will occupy and distract Europe with the terrible consequences, and it will give Trump the time to explain and to refocus till the next elections … and to focus on his political adversaries at home.
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