President Putin declared being open to a ceasefire. It is not the first time that Putin declares his openness to a ceasefire as he did the same declaration in 2024 with a number of conditions assorted.
Understanding today Putin, these 2024 conditions seem hardly changed. The territorial questions Putin did not repeat in his today’s message but they remain unchanged and Donald Trump has well noted them. Trump and Foreign Secretary Rubio have explained several times that Ukraine must give up land.
The Guardian reports: “President Putin said that the ceasefire should “lead to an enduring peace, and remove the root causes of this crisis,”. The root causes of the crisis have been mentioned by Putin before and refer to the demand that something like Ukraine shall never happen again. It is the Project Ukraine which Putin refers to: the NATO eastward expansions with revolts, putsch and a proxy war. Already for the ceasefire, Putin may take this into account and will demand a commitment from the US and Europeans to terminate Project Ukraine and to establish control mechanisms for Russia in bordering non-NATO countries so that NATO will not advance further. Never shall there be a Project Ukraine again (or Project Georgia, or Project Belorussia etc.). Putin would ultimately refer to the old theory of bufferstates, to avoid a direct conflict boarder of Russia with NATO.
He lauded Russian troops for “advancing in practically all areas of the contact line,” and pointed out that the ceasefire must not be used to rearm Ukrainians to mobilise more troops and rearm for further confrontation. Thjs is a simple demand and fully understandable as Russia will not give up its current successful momentum. Indeed, this demand would almost come equal to Ukraine laying down all arms, a call-back by its proxy master to certain positions and the security for Russia that Ukrainians will not be stronger after 30 days.
Putin further listed a number of practical issues, including on resolving the Ukrainian “incursion” in Russia’s Kursk region and on monitoring any violations. The Kursk matter is about to be resolved and the Ukrainian troops are basically fully encircled which means that they shall either surrender or walk to their secure death. A ceasefire should not allow those Ukrainian troops to evacuate or even mobilize. Putin is well aware that a ceasefire is very fragile and there can be provocations or covered operations to disturb the ceasefire. Putin did not suggest a solution.
Putin suggested that he would need to negotiate outstanding issues “with our American colleagues and partners,” suggesting “maybe a phone call with President Trump.”
Trump, in a brief reaction, acknowledged that there are details to discuss. He again confirmed that land must be ceded to Russia.
Unfortunately, the Guardian concludes: “By avoiding an outright rejection of Trump’s ceasefire proposal, Putin appears to be balancing between not openly rebuffing Trump’s push for peace while also imposing his own stringent demands – potentially prolonging negotiations.” Even a Guardian journalist cannot misunderstand that Russia is moving forward successfully and that the US is not willing to spend much more on Ukraine. For Trump, Project Ukraine has failed and there is no way to throw good money after lost money. Russia understood the situation, but will not say “Njet” to a ceasefire, in particular as a “Njet” will hurt Trump politically, will hurt the only main Western actor who seriously wants peace. It is now up to Trump and Putin, both knowing that Ukraine is at the end and about to collapse, to find an honorable way out: a ceasefire with maximum security guarantees for Russia will be neceasary. Ukraine has lost the war, has been misused and exploited, by its elites, the Obama/Biden administrations and their followers in Europe. They played, they lost. Only a maximum of security guarantees for Russia will allow for an instant ceasefire and will open the way to a full peace settlement. Peace must assure to Russia that there will be never again a Project Ukraine. And finally, Trump said that European fears that Russia might invade or attack them are unjustified. A clear refute of European hysterics. A developing story.
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