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- The Hill, 30 January 2025
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It is getting clear: the Biden Administration messed up Project Ukraine. Initially, it was about NATO eastward expansion into Ukraine, but became a terrible Western sponsored war between Ukraine and Russia to damage Russian economy and shere existence.
In February 2022, after a small Russian force entered the territory of Ukraine, too small to occupy Ukraine and, surprisingly for the Russians, too small to change the Kiev regime, a settlement peace agreement was signed in Istanbul.
Unfortunately, Kiev’s Western partners did not want the Istanbul Agreement and promised V Selensky “all what it takes” to win the war against Russia.
Marco Rubio, the new US Secretary of State, declared recently that it was dishonest of the Biden Administration to induce Ukraine in a long and horrible war with Russia, knowing that Ukraine would not win, so accepting the destruction of Ukraine, endless killing and suffering and triggering the massive displacement of its population.
Indeed, US and Ukrainian elites, with uncounted billions of Dollars and Euros in their hands and with all the war material available in NATO’s storage, greedily engaged in that war – sacrificing generations of Ukrainian men on the battlefield. As the US Senator Lindsey Graham once said about Project Ukraine: “Best deal ever, no American boys dead and Russians totally damaged” – but he did not say a word about Ukrainian sufferings.
Graham was wrong: the deal went sour for the US. Enormous sunk costs in a never ending war while it is getting clear that Ukrainians were promised the impossible. Russia may be damaged, but far away from what Graham hoped for. Or Russia seems even stronger than before. Project Ukraine failed completely.
So, what peace deal may be possible?
Obviously, Russia has made up its mind what to expect from a peace deal. In today’s situation where Russia advances and Ukraine’s existence is ending soon, Russia understandably is not in a hurry to start negotiations. Russia will reach out for the maximum.
Donald Trump needs a satisfactory deal for his audience, and time is of essence considering Ukraine’s weak position. Trump would sacrifice Ukraine to a certain extent to get a deal with Putin. Trump knows that Putin will have to sell the deal as a win to his people, consequently the deal must be very favorable for Russia.
The problem remaining: Selensky. Since Trump’s inauguration, Selensky insists that he/Ukraine shall have a say in the deal. Selensky insists that he is the one to agree and sign a deal. He wants to be part of the deal. Considering Selensky’s past talks and demands, a deal will not be made with him. His demands are simply not realistic (territorial, security, peacekeepers, NATO, etc).
Donald Trump understands that the problem for a quick deal is Selensky. As consequence, the US have increased pressure on Ukraine: civil aid payments suspended, corruption brought to daylight, open criticism at Selensky and team, criticism at past Biden Administration and at some war supporting US allies).
While it is foreseeable that Selensky will break under Trump’s pressure, the same will not be the case for Putin. In fact, at the moment, Trump has no coercive instrument at hand to pressure Putin (Trump would never send US troops). Needless to say that the overall situation for Russia is very burdensome, so the Russian intention is to find a solution but not only to find a peace deal for Ukraine, but a long lasting settlement for the overall situation, including sanctions, European and global security, energy, coexistence, buffer zones, zones of influence etc. For Russia and Putin, it may also be important to be dealt with on an equal level and with respect.
The European nations, all supporting Ukraine with money and arms, are interested to have a say in the negotiations but seemingly cannot speak with one voice, having different interests. The energy question is dominant in the EU, as the European security. Europe, for good reason may be afraid of Russia after the Europeans participated in Project Ukraine and were, at least indirectly, in a war with Russia. The Russian soul does not forget. But Europe, the EU, may not have a chance under Trump to participate in the negotiations and may only loudly make their comments and wishes. It is expected that the EU will have to face the huge burden to deal with what’s left of Ukraine and to pay for Ukrainian needs for an unforeseeable future.
As a result, the Russians, as it has been heard from the Kremlin, will envisage a kind of Istanbul Plus Deal. It is expected that Russian demands will be far reaching and very difficult for Ukraine’s further existence. There may be no Ukraine anymore. Russia’s understandable interest is that there never shall be another Project Ukraine or similar. The US and the West shall accept Russia as an equal partner in a multi-polar World.
The perspective to find a deal is getting very dark. Without a deal, Ukraine will collapse, some say before Summer. The Ukrainian collapse would not need a deal anymore but instead a Western crisis management to fight the consequences of the messed-up Project Ukraine. Would the US help Europe with collapsed Ukraine? Will Russia look at further strategic gains in Europe and abroad?
