Trump announces novel plan to send weapons to Ukraine and gives Russia new deadline to make peace

Today, President Trump received the visit of NATO General Secretary Rutte in Washington.

The outcome was expected. Trump agreed to a deal to sell arms to NATO, precisely to NATO countries willing and able to disburse hundreds of millions, or billions, while the arms will then be forwarded by NATO to Ukraine.

It was not clear if the US has arms on stock or if they will be produced based on long-term contracts. It seems that Trump is willing to sell two Patriot air defense systems right away, for USD 1 billion each and a total of 17 of such systems over time, according to the possibility to produce new ones. This will bring a wonderful income to the US industry, paid by European nations.

Trump found a brilliant way to indirectly send weapons to Ukraine, and he can claim that he or the US do not send weapons to Ukraine but other countries do. This is the smallest level of escalation possible. As well, Trump brilliantly will make the Europeans pay for it and, in addition, Trump excludes Ukrainian middlemen who normally are enriched by each arms sale to Ukraine.

Unfortunately, this confirms that the US is still the leading party in the war in Ukraine. Trump wanted the US to retreat from Biden’s War but he felt a strong opposition in his own country, amplified by European leaders.

Trump’s deal to sell arms to European countries is eventually only an ephemere show, run by the brilliant show master which Trump is. The media will celebrate it as a win over Russia, but the awakening will follow soon.

In addition, Trump imposed a deadline of 50 days on Russia to submit to a ceasefire in Ukraine. Otherwise, the US will impose secondary sanctions on Russia, meaning that countries that are trading with Russia will have to pay tariffs on goods which these countries send and sell to the US. Such countries to be targeted are mainly the BRICS countries, in particular China and India. Other countries, even European countries, are still trading with Russia and may see themselves excluded from a profitable business with Russia, under pressure and threats of such secondary US sanctions.

But Trump’s announcement of imposing a 100% secondary sanctions on Russia had the effect to derail the initiative of US Senator Lindsey Graham to submit to Congress a law that would impose a 500% secondary sanctions on Russia.

The World now awaits the Russian reaction to Trump’s announcement. Two possible hypothesis:

If Trump’s announcement was prepared and agreed with the Russian side, then the Russian reaction will be formal but without any noisy retaliation

If Trump’s announcement was not prepared and agreed with Russia – it does not matter. Trump’s announcement came without surprise, of course, as it was largely disccused in the media and Trump made lots of comments on Russia and Putin the days before. Russia was therefore, prepared and knew and expected that Trump was forced to act in some way and provide weapons to Ukraine, in particular, Patriot systems.  The 50 days of deadline before imposing secondary sanctions was a brilliant strategic idea, as it destroys the hardliners’ own initiative to vote a law on even harder Russia sanctions, and also gives Russia sufficient time to achieve decisive advantages on the battlefield.

Trump would never expect that Russia will surrender to any US or NATO ultimatum and accept a ceasefire against their security interests. In particular, as Russia seemingly is winning the war.

Russia has the largest majority of its population behind the Kremlin’s handling of the Ukraine conflict and Russians can see now the success of the careful operations in Ukraine. If NATO troops will enter the conflict, Russians by large majority, will support their elimination. Russians are ready to face an escalating conflict with the US and NATO and Russians know that no European or American man or woman will want to die, or have their sons dying for Ukraine or for NATO’s eastward expansion project, which is Project Ukraine. Russians (as most Westerners) understand now that all these threats of sanctions, of deliveries of weapons are to a certain extent a bluff. But Westerners are increasingly afraid of a nuclear escalation and are increasingly critical with their political elite’s handling of the Ukrainian crisis.

New US weapons will be delivered against payment. Which weapons the US can or will make available now, or only after their production and when, is unclear.

A brilliant move of Trump. It remains to hope that President Putin understood the move and Trump’s dilemma of being pressured by his own US elites and US and foreign allies and that Putin will not react forcefully against US proper interests in this compöicated situation.

Of course, in the meantime and for 50 days, Trump gave Putin free hand to terminate the Ukrainian problem and Putin needs to speed up to get a quick collapse of Ukraine’s army which is expected over the summer. Trump and all the NATO leaders as well Ukraine know that the times of negotiations are finished with Trump’s today’s move and that Russia will increase enormously its military pressure on what remains of the Ukrainian army.

Even CNN concludes its analysis with the following statement: “Kyiv will be relieved immediately but may also soon feel a familiar sense of disappointment.”