Kremlin seeking to eliminate me in Operation Maidan 3, Selensky says

This (paid by Biden and by Democrats) POLITICO headline is of 2023. It is more of actuality today, with the only exception that it is not the Kremlin that wants to eliminate Selensky, but it is the US under the Trump Administration.

Selensky became a handy opponent for Russia. He is weak, totally dependent on Western sponsors and more and more criticized in Ukraine. He has powerful enemies in Ukraine. Most of Selensky’s Western sponsors, all before the US, are not anymore his friends but very critical masters who would not excuse one slightest misstep. This weakens Selensky’s position and therefore, also the battered Ukrainian army’s motivation. Selensky in place is good for Russia. But bad for peace.

Such misstep happened recently when Selensky tried to get rid off the independent anti-corruption authority, as he tried to bring this authority under his control. Selensky cut off foreign, Western control by a quick legislative act. But this hasadeur act was immediately attacked by the West: Western financed NGOs went to protest on the Maidan and streets all over Ukraine. The Western media was sharply attacking Selensky and the EU was threatening to stop the process of Ukraine’s EU accession. As a result, Selensky asked the Ukrainian Parliament to rescind the latest legislation and to reinstaurate the independence (say Western control) of the anti-corruption authority. But still this quasi-turn around is insufficient as still the anti-corruption authority in question, as well as other offices that control financial and tax crimes, remain not fully independent. But who can trust Selensky?

Trump is welcoming Selensky’s missteps. It will make it easier to send Selensky to exile and to reorganize the Ukrainian regime towards a conciliatory negotiation with Russia.

Trump, under all conditions, wants to avoid to be brandmarked as the reason for Ukraine’s defeat and collapse. He prefers an internal Ukrainian conflict between highly corrupt and egoistic fractions in Ukraine that will destabilize the regime and bring Ukraine’s army and the state to collapse. Trump can then say: ” I told you so.”

The internal conflict in Ukraine as well as Ukraine’s following collapse are the best outcome for the US and for Russia. Russia will get what it wants (and what partially was already offered by Trump in exchange for peace). And the US will get out of this conflict and Trump will not be blamed, but instead the ever corrupt, highly conflicting internal parties in Ukraine. The corrupt Ukrainian elites helped Biden to realize his war under Project Ukraine, and will help Trump to assure a quick termination of the war and to achieve an end to Ukraine being a risk for peace and for Russia’s security. A collapsed and reduced Ukraine will, therefore, reduce the risk of a longterm frozen conflict, as rest-Ukraine will not have the political will and military power to claim lost territories and will not be strong enough to be again a corrupted proxy in a future conflict between the West and Russia.

But Trump is preparing for his no-blame strategy on the expenses of other nations. Trump has set a deadline of 10 days, now expiring on 8 August that Russia shall stop the war, accept an unconditional ceasefire, as Ukraine and the Europeans have demanded since months. Trump’s deadline is a pleasure for Europeans and for the US war hawks. Trump knows clearly that the winning and advancing Russian army will not stop, that President Putin will not agree to a ceasefire without that his conditions, which are known since a year, are fulfilled. The 10 days deadline will elapse and Russia will not care.

The target for US actions against Russia is India. India is the largest buyer of Russian energy, and its population of a billion is the World’s third largest energy consumer. But India is not a risk for the US, as trade with India is insignificant. Therefore, Trump can take India out and start with his secondary sanctions on this poorest and weakest of Russia’s energy clients. For good reason, Trump will not target China. Trump, on the other hand, must not really fear a considerable distortion of energy markets as India will continue to buy Russian energy and may take the hit and losses of Trump’s secondary sanctions. Russia can be assured that Trump is not overreaching his public action with really dangerous measures. At least, the assault on India helps to fend off any accusation of guilt in the Ukrainian collapse, as Trump has done officially a significant move against Russia (while hitting poor India) but which keeps consequences restricted.

And the Europeans will calm down as well as the Ukrainian internal collapse provoked by Ukraine’s corrupt elites is a story that will publicly discharge European leaders from not doing more to fight Russia. Just the upcoming bills for the support and reconstruction of rest-Ukraine will create some European internal disputes about how to divide the horrendous costs between the European countries.

It is noteworthy that during Trump’s deadline high ranking Russian and US officials are meeting. US Foreign Secretary Rubio has met Russian officials in a secret meeting and US Special Envoy Wittkoff is meeting Putin in a few days. This is reassuring and the public antagonistic noise from both sides is seemingly only a distraction and not a real threat to the survival of humanity threatened by nuclear escalation because of the mess created by Biden’s War in Ukraine.