Ukraine hits Kerch bridge with underwater explosives and energy infrastructure in annexed territories

Since yesterday, Russia has been hit by divers Ukrainian attacks. In particular, one attack hit the Kerch Bridge linking Russia and Crimea.

The Guardian writes: “The operation, for which Kyiv’s SBU security service claimed responsibility, is the second high-profile operation by Ukraine in days striking significant Russian assets after a sophisticated drone raid on Moscow’s strategic bomber fleet on Sunday.”

The Guardian is right to call the attacks high-profiel operations. These are no military attacks in a war, but under-cover operations executed by spies. Such 007 style bombings are noteworthy and allow for large press coverage. These operations are fancy to the media and some readers who are forgetting about the risks of a possible Russian retaliation.

In the last few days, Russia has seen a number of these 007 attacks, such as

– attacks on railway bridges which resulted in many civilian deaths and injured

– attacks on Russia’s strategic nuclear bomber fleet

– attacks on the energy infrastructure in the annexed territories

– attack on the Kerch bridge

What will be the reaction of Russia? Will Russia pre-discuss the reaction with the US? What can diplomacy do to help avoid a huge escalation.

The attacks all seem unimportant for the conflict in Ukraine and have no impact on the Russian army to proceed as before. But the attacks may have symbolic and strategic character and may also call for revenge for civilian life’s targeted.

The Kerch bridge attack may be considered as symbolic. The bridge, as before can be repaired quickly and transport to Crimea can go on land as well.

The attacks on Russian strategic bombers are more concerning. These bombers are defined as long range nuclear bombers under the Start II Agreement between Russia and US. They are counted for and need to be openly exposed on airfields visible to the US (and to Russia re the US bombers), as their position is a crucial element of reciprocal nuclear control. Any attack on these nuclear bombers has impact on Russia’s nuclear deterrance capability and might represent a direct risk for the US.

The attack on nuclear bombers is, in general, irrelevant for the war in Ukraine as they have been hardly used in combat. These bombers are slow and their movements are visioned under the Start II agreement. Instead Russia fires missiles into Ukraine from fast fighter jets or from land based installations, and uses more and more drones.

The attack on the strategic nuclear bombers, if arranged with the help of Western intelligence, would be a very dangerous matter. If the US was behind these attacks on the bombers, Russia could consider, at least a violation of the Start II agreement and could withdraw from this agreement which limits the number of nuclear warheads of both countries. It would be a bad thing for the US as well, and therefore, it is unlikely that the Trump Administration has agreed with the attacks on nuclear bombers. The US would be advised to condemn these attacks rapidly in order not to endanger Start II.

Remains the question which Western intelligence agency might have helped Ukraine to launch these attacks on Russia’s nuclear bombers?

Till the fog over these attacks is clearing, Russia has enough time to think about revenge and retaliation. And Russia knows that till the Ukrainian collapse occurs more and more of such sabotage and guerilla attacks may happen  Russia is advancing steadily on the Ukrainian battlefield but still is vulnerable at home.

What would do Donald Trump if Iran, the Houthis, Hamas or any other enemy is attacking the US at home? The consequences for the attacker will be horrible. Russia instead, might exercise restraint on Ukraine as before, hopefully.