The last two days have seen a very active political and public show regarding proposals from Europe and UK and Russia to end the conflict in Ukraine. Europe and UK assorted their proposal with an ultimatum.
On 10 May, a day after the WWII celebrations in Russia which were held with an unilateral ceasfire from the Russian side, the leaders of France, UK, Germany and Poland came to Kiev for a public event. Their mission was to suggest an unconditional 30 days ceasefire and to threat Russia with more sanctions if Russia would not agree.
It is still not clear to what extent Donald Trump was on board with this European mission. The originally by V Selensky suggested 30 days ceasefire was taken up by Trump as a nice thing to have (even assorted with more sanctions) but it was overshadowed by Trump’s declaration to retreat from Ukraine. And more importantly, Trump, knowing about Russia’s demands and strong position, never said it should be unconditional.
The Guardian writes: “If Putin rejected the offer, said the British prime minister, Keir Starmer,“we will respond, working with President Trump, with all our partners, we will ramp up sanctions, and increase our military aid for Ukraine’s defence to pressure Russia back to the table”.
In response to the ultimatum, Russia rejected the unconditional ceasefire with the argument that 30 days will be used by Ukraine to rearm, to mobilize and to allow foreign troops to enter. Russia, convinced to be strong enough, rejected such unconditional ceasefire and referred to its demands from earlier talks about a ceasefire.
President Putin, yesterday night, confirmed the rejection of an unconditional ceasefire but proposed to have immediate talks with Ukraine, in Istanbul, already next week, 15 May. These bilateral talks should lead to a ceasefire and a peace agreement. It shall be a negotiation from the point where the earlier peace process has started in 2022 but which was abruptly ended by Ukraine.
The first to oppose to these bilateral negotiations was President Macron of France.
The first to approve these bilateral negotiations was Donald Trump, writing in a Truth post that this is an important day for Ukraine and Russia and both parties shall proceed and stop the killings. Trump wrote that he will support the negotiations.
And finally, as always, the disturbing element is Selensky, demanding first a ceasfire, probably unconditionally, then only he would talk with Russia about peace. It is, therefore, a “No” from Selensky to negotiations with Russia.
The ultimatum set by the European and the UK was extra-ordinary and a first in the Ukrainian conflict. Of course, the European leaders could not expect that Russia would submit to an ultimatum – why should Russia? Therefore, the European initiative was a show and not a serious endeavor. But also their hopes were based on unserious calculations that this would bring Trump back in the boat, joining with money, military aid and sanctions.
It looks not as if Trump intends to join the Europeans, instead he favors direct talks between Ukraine and Russia, as per his Truth message. Of course, the US is obliged to stand by and provide help in any form – in particular, as they signed the (still incomplete) Minerals Deal with Ukraine.
Independently observed, the situation is 1:0 Putin against Europeans. The date of 15 May for the commencement of bilateral negotiations is set by Putin, and Trump favors this – so Selensky’s refusal is a vote for war.
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