It is again evident in what form and method most mainstream media is reporting about the latest social media message of Donald Trump: the media’s focus is exclusively on Trump’s sentences “Putin gone crazy” and “Selensky is not good for his country”. The media reports about Trump message as if it was a triumph over Russia. It needs further analysis and some factual additions:
First, Trump writes “something happened to Putin”. This is, indeed, a fact and an understatement. During the 3 days before Russia’s strong attack on Ukraine, the Ukrainian army attacked ferociously Moscow, over 2 nights. According to Russian reports, all drones and missiles were shot down, no special damage occurred. In the same period, Ukraine attacked a battery factory, which was successfully hit, but where the damage is not clear.
But what was more important: last week, President Putin visited Kursk. He suddenly was in the epicenter of a Ukrainian drone attack while in his helicopter. Certainly a strong impression.
Needless to say that all these attacks were enabled with Western intelligence and technology.
What Trump is qualifying as “crazy” is a one time strong reaction of Russia, with missiles, drones, which were mostly reaching their targets. In particular, the Ukrainian drone factory in the West of Kiev was hit.
As always, some Russian drones were shot down and, as pictures show, landed in Kiev’s wealthy villa outskirts – the photos of burning houses showed substantial single family dwellings. It is not reasonable to believe that Russia would waste expensive missiles or drones to target single family dwellings outside of a city.
Eventually, Trump is calling Putin to calm down and not to hit back so hard – as Trump still hopes for negotiations for peace. Trump may willingly accept the 2 days maximal attacks of Ukraine on Moscow, all in hope to avoid any further escalation.
But escalation is welcome by Kiev and European capitals, as it helps to force Trump to continue to be engaged in Ukraine. In fact, all European efforts at the moment are to engage Trump in the conflict, with provocation, media attacks and influencing some hawkish politicians in Washington.
And this may be confirmed by the rest of Trump’s message on Truth: Tump says, it is “Selensky’s, Putin’s, Biden’s War” not “Trump’s War”. Trump also writes” everything out of Selensky’s mouth causes problems” he shall stop, it means shut up. This is again Trump’s threat to withdraw from Ukraine, saying that the participants of the war are unreasonable and their behaviour contrary to peace. It is also a reminder of other historical changes of minds in US politics which have shown that the US may easily withdraw (Vietnam, Korea, Irak, Afghanistan …), leaving behind desaster and a situation which returns to its origin.
After repeatedly claiming that the Ukrainian conflict is Biden’s War and throwing the responsibility for it upon Biden, Trump claims now for the first time that it is also “Selensky’s War”. This is a direct culpabilization of Selensky for the continuation if not for the commencement of the war. But calling out Selensky is at the same time calling out the Europeans and their responsibility for the continuation of the war.
Of course, Trump has increased his tone towards Putin, but what can Trump really do to coerce Putin to act in a different way?
Finally, Trump warns Putin not to conquere and occupy all of Ukriane. That was probably not yet a target of Putin as occupying Ukraine may need huge efforts, a 1 million army (the German Wehrmacht knew) and an engagement for many years. None of these elements have shown up in Russia’s military operations yet. And as the US experienced in different previous wars: in today’s World it is hardly possibly to occupy a whole country for long and usually results in defeat and disaster with the same extremists returning to power (Irak, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya and some many more).
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